COP 30: The wins, the curveballs, and the roadmaps

When politics get tough, climate progress shifts from bold statements to roadmaps, coalitions of the willing and acts of solidarity.

A mixed backdrop

The 30th Conference of the Parties (COP30) in Belém, Brazil, opened against a backdrop of both promising developments and unprecedented headwinds.

The absence of the United States at the negotiation table injected uncertainty into global climate leadership. 

China’s latest data suggested its emissions may have peaked – an important milestone and a reminder of its accelerating dominance in clean-technology industries.

The absence of many heads of government and state was noticeable. Elsewhere in the world, Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto’s visit to Australia announced a treaty on common security, while in the US, President Donald Trump met with Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and struck a deal on fighter jets. 

More than 100 countries, representing over 70 per cent of global emissions – submitted new NDCs ahead of COP30. These were stronger, broader, and more credible, as assessed by the UNFCCC Secretariat, but collectively still fall short of what is required to limit global warming within 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels.

Gaining momentum in a difficult year

Against these backdrops, the fact that COP30 produced meaningful progress is noteworthy in itself.

Rather than force agreements on issues where divisions remain deep, especially on fossil-fuel phase-out and climate finance, the COP30 Presidency adopted a practical approach, reframing the Amazon Summit as the COP of roadmaps.

This meant outlining a structured, multi-year plan for action, acknowledging the unresolved negotiations that cannot be settled today but must be settled soon. Within that framework, several concrete steps emerged.

More than 80 countries, including Australia and South Korea, signed the fossil-fuel transition statement, signaling growing political alignment even as formal negotiation texts continue to lag.

New nature-finance mechanisms were launched, reflecting the urgency of protecting forests and ecosystems. 

Just transition plans moved from narrative to substance through the Belém Action Mechanism, with more explicit commitments to workers and marginalised communities.

The Blue NDC Challenge, launched by Brazil and France, calls on all countries to put ocean-based climate action at the heart of NDCs, an area that Climateworks has been working towards alongside the Indonesian government.

And for the first time, green trade was embedded in final COP texts. Paragraph 55 and 56 of the COP30 official declaration acknowledged that climate diplomacy is now inseparable from trade and industrial strategy. Climateworks’ experts Dr. Ceren Ayas and Kylie Turner championed the green trade agenda in Belém, hosting two events on ‘Fostering cooperation in industrial decarbonisation and sustainable supply chains’ and ‘Australia’s role in catalysing a low-carbon, competitive, and inclusive manufacturing sector across Southeast Asia’.

The gaps that remain

The core ‘global mutirão’ texts at COP30 still hold the commitment to keep the 1.5°C limit ‘within reach’, while warning that the remaining carbon budget is ‘small and rapidly depleting’.

Against that reality, the areas where COP30 fell short are impossible to ignore. Efforts to include a fossil fuel phase-out in the final text failed yet again, a reminder of the deeply divergent levels of ambition.

Climate finance remains an even more stubborn barrier. The Baku to Belém financing roadmap toward the $1.3 trillion goal is clearer, but commitments on the table are still absent. The divide between industrialised and industrialising countries remains a defining feature of climate finance negotiations.

The road ahead

Brazilian president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva has committed to bring forward two roadmaps, on transitioning away from fossil fuels and deforestation, to present at next year’s COP31 where Australia will hold a key role as the President of Negotiations. These are two key issues that have been unresolved at negotiation tables during this year’s Summit.

Ultimately, the world will not judge COP30 by the words in its final documents. It will judge it by what happens next: whether governments treat each roadmap as a placeholder or genuine blueprint for implementation, and how the Türkiye-Australia partnership modalities will carry these roadmaps forward for COP31.

For all its complexities, this year’s Summit made one thing unmistakably clear: the increased momentum that it created amongst industry, government and community signals that the Paris Agreement remains indispensable.